BTG Hotel (600258) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: New Stores Accelerate Less Than Expected Overlapping Same Stores Accelerate Downward Downward Performance and Expect Q4 Marginal Improvement

BTG Hotel (600258) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: New Stores Accelerate Less Than Expected Overlapping Same Stores Accelerate Downward Downward Performance and Expect Q4 Marginal Improvement
Investment Highlights Event: Company Announcement: 2019Q1-Q3 achieved revenue 62.31 ppm, a decrease of 2 per year.16%, of which, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 growth rate is 0.99% /-1.5% /-5.32%; net profit attributable to mother 7.1.9 billion, down 10 a year.27%; net profit of non-attributed mothers 6.89 ppm, a 10-year increase3.75%, of which, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 growth rates are -3.04% / 8.31% / 1.51%; operating net cash flow 14.16 ppm, a decrease of 0 per year.7%, EPS is 0.73 yuan / share. Opinion: Affected by the renovation and upgrade of direct-operated stores and the downturn of the industry, revenue has been reduced, related expenses have been reduced and investment income has increased, and Q2 results have turned positive.At the core of the report, the company achieved revenue 62.31 ppm, a decrease of 2 per year.16%, the decline in revenue was mainly due to the internal upgrade of the direct-operated stores due to the compliance and upgrading of closed stores; of which, the hotel segment achieved revenue of 59.01 billion, down 2 every year.31%, of which, hotel operations fell by 4.8% (19H1 decreased by 2.72杭州桑拿%), hotel management increased by 9.52% (19H1 increased by 9.98%), revenue from the Scenic Sector3.30,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.55%; the company realized a total profit of 10.37 trillion, down 10 a year.28%, mainly due to: 1) Food and beverage (increasing the launch of a bowl of noodles + increased delivery of food) and commodity costs increased by 41.72 million / + 12.05%; 2) Sales expenses decreased by RMB 12.397 million / -3.02% (reduction in the number of directly operated stores + reduction in RevPAR short-term bonus + energy, reduction in depreciation and amortization expenses); 3) management and research and development expenses reduced by 835 million / -1.1%; 4) Finance expenses for repayment of loans decreased by 3,181 million / -24.47%; 5) Received the Enterprise Development and Support Incentive Fund, a new increase in budget reform, and other input taxes to increase other income by 3,751 million / + 115.39%; 6) Investment income decreased by -12.68 million yuan / -80.69%. New stores and net stores have accelerated, Q1 to Q3 have gradually opened 431 new stores (long-term target of 800), Q4 is expected to speed up new stores.As of the end of 19Q3, the number of company hotels was 4,174 (including 1 overseas), a net increase of 125 over the beginning of the year, the number of rooms was 402,158, an increase of 4,597 over the beginning of the year; of which, 2,642 were economical, 814 were mid- to high-end, and cloud hotels377, others (apartments, management output, Manqu Paradise, such as a small town); 341; 75/159/197 new stores opened in 19Q1 / Q2 / Q3 (84/135/156 in 18Q1 / Q2 / Q3 respectively),Among them, there are 13 directly-operated stores, 143 mid-to-high-end (13 directly-operated), 63 economical, 98 cloud series, and 127 others; net opening of 12/56/104 stores (18Q1 / Q2 / Q3 are 21 respectively)/ 55/70 stores), 22 directly-operated stores; economy-104 stores, 111 mid- to high-end stores (among which are Yiyi / Home Inns Select / Home Inns business with a net increase of 11/17/79), and 81 cloud series, The other 84 (excluding the impact of apartments); the proportion of rooms in direct-operated stores further decreased to 26.58%, a decrease of 0 from the beginning of the year.66pct, middle and high-end bedrooms account for 23.1%; until the end of 19Q3, there were 663,689 shops that had not been opened or were contracted, an increase of 133 earlier, and a decrease of 26 earlier Q2. Affected by the intensified economic growth of the downlink and the factors in September, Q3 operating data accelerated the downward.Affected by the downturn in the macro economy, the segmentation of the growth of the tourism market and the intensified competition, the quarterly operating data has accelerated downward since the beginning of this year.The company started to merge the same store data into the first BTG hotel store in 19Q2 and split the cloud series brands. According to the quarterly data, 17Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 / 18Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 / 19Q1 / Q2 / Q3 overall RevPARRespectively increase by 4.5% / 6.7% / 8% / 7.2% / 4% / 5.6% / 4.1% / 2.8% /-0.5% /-1.5 / -3.7%, same-store RevPAR increased by 2 respectively.90% / 2.50% / 4.90% / 5.90% / 6.50% / 4.30% / 2.4% / 1.4% /-3% /-3.6% /-6.1%; Q3 same-store occupancy rate fell again, and the average house price fell further. Under short-term pressure, we expect the same-store expansion in Q4 to narrow and new stores to accelerate.In the fourth quarter, it is expected that some of the demand will move backwards, the northbound market is improving, and the same store locations will narrow in the low base. Overlapping the company’s initial new store opening goals, the new store opening is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter. In addition, additional proportions will be added to increase thickening performance.In addition, actively research and develop and optimize hotel management systems to improve operational efficiency; the launch of a joint venture brand with Hyatt, “YiCheng UrCovebyHYATT”, focusing on the mid-to-high end consumer market will replace Home Inns’ shortcomings in this field. Profit forecast and investment rating: Affected by macroeconomic factors and other factors, operating data is intensifying downward, short-term pressure is transmitted, and the speed of new stores is slower than expected, and Q4 is expected to accelerate; in 19 years, the contribution of new stores and franchise stores will become an important factor in performance growthAs the direct-operated stores shrink and enter the transformation and upgrade cycle, business operations are improved and the proportion of mid- to high-end and franchise revenue is increased. The proportion of franchise stores ‘contribution will continue to increase and counterbalance the increase. Gradually, the company ‘s distribution incentives are assumed to be successfully implemented.During the transition period of the hotel industry, we will enhance competitiveness and operating efficiency, and cooperate with Hyatt to make up for the short-term brand of the mid-end brands. We have lowered the company’s profit forecast for 19-21, and expect the EPS in 19-21 to be zero.87/1.05/1.21 yuan, the corresponding daily PE on October 29 is 19/16/14 times, maintaining the “prudent increase” rating. Risk reminders: Macroeconomic growth rate, store expansion and revpar growth rate are less than expected, management improvement and internal integration are not progressing as expected, goodwill impairment losses, state-owned enterprise reform progress is less than expected, shareholders reduce risk, etc.

Laobai Dry Wine (600559): Increasing Pressure Increases Downgrade to Neutral

Laobai Dry Wine (600559): Increasing Pressure Increases Downgrade to Neutral
Investment suggestion We downgrade Laobai dry wine to neutral with a target price of 11.67 yuan, we expect the company’s revenue growth rate to decrease to 8 in the next three years?9%, for the following reasons: The company ‘s growth pressure in Hebei, the home base of the company, has increased significantly.In the third quarter of 19, the company’s Hebei revenue decreased by 15%, mainly affected by 7?The effect of the local alcohol ban in August, but even excluding this factor, the company’s revenue growth rate is gradually changing.The company’s overall revenue declined by 11% in the third quarter of 1919, the first change in the quarter since the fourth quarter of 2016,杭州桑拿论坛 showing prolonged growth pressure.We believe that the pressure fluctuates. First, the company’s growth at the next high-end price is affected by demand and competition. As a result, we expect the company’s revenue growth rate at this price to be only 22% / 20% in 2019/20.Second, other strong liquor companies continued to increase their expenditures in Hebei Province, including Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, Fen Jiu, and Gu Jing Gong Jiu. Competition at mid-range and above prices continued to intensify.  Product structure adjustment efforts and time are beyond our expected range.In the past three years, the company has consolidated SKUs from more than 800 to about 150. The company plans to continue to replace about 60 SKUs. It will continue to focus on core single products at high, middle and low prices. We believe this will be beneficial 南京夜网 to the company’s long-term growth.Two years still have to weigh on income.  After the release of Fenglian Liquor’s short-term reform dividend, the overall continued high growth vulnerability.In addition to Wuling benefiting from the rapid growth of sauce wine, Fenglian Wine’s assets in Bancheng, Wenwang Gong Liquor faced the direct squeeze of provincial leaders in the local market, risking loss of market share.In the third quarter of 19th, the sales revenue of listed companies in Anhui market increased by 54%. We estimate that this is mainly due to the placement of Wenwang Gongjiu.  What makes us different from the market?Fenglian Wine Industry continued its high growth vulnerability.  Potential catalyst: The company’s revenue in Hebei continues.  Earnings forecasts and estimates We cut our revenue for 2019/20 due to increased competition1.7% / 0.9% to 38.96/42.09 trillion, due to the huge rigidity of expenses, lowered to the net profit of the mother14.1% / 13.7% to 3.74/4.6.6 billion yuan, so the target price is reduced by 19.5% to 11.67 yuan, corresponding to 2019/20 28.0x / 22.5xP / E, current price corresponds to 2019/20 28.8x / 23.1xP / E, the target price is 2 compared with the current price.6% downside, downgrade to neutral.  Risks: If high-end wines are still rapidly flowing, the overall revenue growth will exceed expectations.

BOE A (000725): Interim report results are in line with expectations. It is recommended to focus on overseas production line adjustments in the second half of the year.

BOE A (000725): Interim report results are in line with expectations. It is recommended to focus on overseas production line adjustments in the second half of the year.

Event: Recently, the company released its 2019 Interim Report, and the company achieved revenue of 550 in 1H19.

3.9 billion, 26 every year.

6%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 16.

68 ppm, ten years -43.

9%, deducting non-net profit 6.

51 ppm, ten years -56.

65%, of which the company achieved 285 operating income in the second quarter.

85 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.

5% to achieve net profit attributable to mother 6.

17 ‰, 35 years ago.

5%, in line with expectations.

In the first half of the year, the driving force of revenue growth continued to increase in the market segments and Chengdu 6th generation line and Hefei10.

The production capacity of the 5th generation line climbed smoothly.

In the first half of the year, the company’s port business (display panel business) achieved revenue of 508.

97 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

9%, which is mainly due to Chengdu 6th generation line and Hefei 10.

The production capacity of the 5th generation line climbed smoothly, of which the 16th phase of the Chengdu line was successfully converted to solid, and over 10 million units were reorganized in the first half of the year, Hefei10.

The 5th generation line reached full production at the end of the first quarter; Smart IoT and Smart Medical Workers achieved revenue of 75 in the first half of the year.

22 and 6.

64 ppm, an increase of 2 each year.

4% and 26.


Panel prices continued to drop, dragging down the company’s profitability.

1H19’s overall gross profit margin was 16.

8%, single quarter gross margin of 15 in the second quarter of 19.

9%, down 1 from the previous month.

Eight, single quarter gross margin hit a new low since 2Q16.

The decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the continuous decline in panel prices.

The sluggish demand and the continuous development of new production capacity have led to a continued decline in panel prices in the first half of the year, and the prices of all major panel sizes have reached record lows in the first half of the year.

The sluggish panel prices caused the gross margin of the port device (display panel business) in the first half of the year to fall by four to 15 from the second half of last year.

6%, the initial low of the company’s overall gross profit margin.

In the second half of the year, it is recommended to pay active attention to the overseas production line adjustment plan.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, the risk of oversupply in the panel industry is still on the demand side. The macroeconomic uncertainty brought about by the Sino-US trade 武汉夜生活网 conflict and the stimulation of large-scale large-scale events have also made it difficult for the demand to improve.Optoelectronics Shenzhen 11th generation line and Huike Quzhou G8.

6 climbing, and Hon Hai 10.

With the launch of the 5th generation line, supplementary production capacity is still sticking.

Oversupply in the industry and profit pressure have caused overseas manufacturers to start considering production line adjustments. Investors are advised to pay close attention.

Give “overweight” rating.

We expect the company’s revenue to be 1101, 1379, and 168.8 billion in 2019-2021, and the net profit is expected to be 27.10, 56.

70 and 99.

79 trillion, corresponding to 50.

60x, 24.

18x and 13.

74x, give “overweight” rating.

Risk warning events: New capacity launch exceeded expectations; overseas production line exit progress exceeded expectations.

Guotai Junan (601211) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Comprehensive Strength Leads Brokerage Business to Keep the Forefront

Guotai Junan (601211) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Comprehensive Strength Leads Brokerage Business to Keep the Forefront

Event description The company released its 2018 annual report and realized total operating income of RMB 227.

1.9 billion, down 4 each year.

56%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the Company is RMB67.

08 million yuan, down 32 every year.

11%; EPS0.

70 yuan / share, expected average ROE5.


The right side of the event comment highlights the advantages, and performance is incorporated into the industry.

The company realized operating income of 227.

190,000 yuan, -4 compared with the same period last year.

56% (industry down 14.

47%); net profit attributable to shareholders of the company.

08 million yuan, -32 compared with the same period last year.

11% (the industry dropped 41.

04%); the margin of change is smaller than the industry, and under the circumstances where the industry’s Matthew effect is prominent, the brokerage on the left has an obvious advantage.

The business structure is balanced, and it is in the forefront of overall stability.

Net profit margin was mainly affected by the market environment. Investment bank, brokerage, and self-employed business income decreased, while the credit impairment loss was accrued.

Brokerage, investment bank, asset management, self-employment, and credit account for 19%, 9%, 7%, 26%, and 26%, respectively. Credit business has become one of the main supports for revenue.

The income from agency trading business was the first, the balance of margin financing and securities lending was the second, the amount of equity underwriting was the third, the average monthly asset management scale was the second, the business structure was balanced, and it was among the top in the industry.

The customer base is strong and the brokerage business continues to lead.

Number of institutional customers 3.

50,000 households, an increase of 20.

06%, 12.7 million personal financial accounts, an increase of 14.

07%, market share of brokerage business 6.

14% (up 0.


The company is the first batch of public fund funds participants, with a scale of USD 934.1 billion in custody expansion business, which is the second largest in the industry.

The investment proposal estimates that the company’s EPS for 2019-2020 will be 0.

95\1.12\1.28. Net assets are 15.

50\15.18\15.61 corresponds to the company’s closing price of 19 on March 20.

70 yuan, PB for 2019-2020 is 1 respectively.

27\1.20\1.26. The market environment has improved. Leading securities companies continue to maintain their advantageous scale and give a “Buy” rating. There is a risk that the secondary market has severely 杭州桑拿网 declined; capital market reforms have fallen short of expectations.

China Eastern Airlines (600115): International performance is eye-catching

China Eastern Airlines (600115): International performance is eye-catching

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report: realized revenue of US $ 114.9 billion, approximately + 13%, and net profit attributable to the mother 27.

1 ppm, ten years -57.

4%, net of non-attributed net profit of 19.

300 million, previously -57%; 18Q4 revenue of +11 per year.

7%, deducting non-attributed net profit can be recovered 2.3 billion (17Q4 changed to 11.

6 ‰), the expansion of Q4 dragged down performance.

International flight fare levels have rebounded significantly.

2018 company overall / domestic / international RPK + 10% / 10.

2% / 9.

6%, overall / domestic / international ASK + 8.

3% / 9.

2% / 6.

9%, achieving a load factor of 82.

29%, ten years +1.

23 points (domestic / international +0.


99 points), of which 18Q4 overall RPK / ASK + 10% / 11 respectively.

8%, load factor rating 0.

6 points, 18 reached the company’s oil-bearing passenger kilometers income level of 0.

538 yuan, +4 for the whole year.

1% (excluding oil +3.

5%), where domestic / international income levels are +4 respectively.

1% / 4.

3% (without oil +2.

8% / 4.

7%), international ticket prices have risen significantly.

We estimate that the company’s 18H1 / Q3 / Q4 fares are +3.

4% / + 5.

6% / + 3%, the narrowing of the fare growth rate in the 18Q4 quarter was mainly due to faster capacity growth (Q3 / Q4 ASK were +4 respectively.

7% / 8.


At the end of 18, the company’s fleet size was 692, and 67 were introduced, 14 were withdrawn, and a net increase of 53. The company expects a net increase of 59, 51, 8 aircraft in 19-21.

The cost of jet fuel has increased rapidly, and the cost of non-jet fuel per unit of ASK has fallen2.


In 18 years, the company’s fuel cost was 337 trillion, + 34% per year. At the same time, the average domestic fuel oil purchase price was + 27% per year. We estimated that the company’s fuel consumption would increase by +5.

3%, which is lower than the growth rate of capacity delivery, and the fuel consumption per unit of ASK decreased by 2.

8%, driving unit ASK fuel cost + 24%, the increase is lower than the increase in oil prices.

The company’s headquarters unit ASK non-oil cost half a year -2.6% (18H2 continues the H1 non-oil cost improvement trend), the company’s cost ratio of replacing financial expenses is 8.

5% per year -0.

5 points, the overall cost of the company is well controlled.

Imply that the exchange rate of non-profit expansion will increase by 11% for the whole year.

Due to the 18-year depreciation of RMB against USD and USD5.

4%, resulting in exchange losses of 21 for the company.

900 million US dollars (17 billion yuan exchange rate brought about 南宁桑拿 by the exchange rate of 2 billion US dollars, if the yuan against the US dollar 1% change, corresponding to the corresponding impact on net profit1.

7.8 billion US dollars, 19 years after the implementation of the new lease budget is expected to increase exchange sensitivity), the company’s current interest rate of USD resistance of 28.5 billion yuan, accounting for 21.

5% (previously downgraded by 6.

7 points), the company’s financial costs increase 46.

500 million, canceled exchange rate increased by 4.

US $ 600 million (mainly due to the increase in the average expenditure balance during the reporting period). Excluding the impact of foreign exchange and non-profit and loss, the company’s 18-year total profit reached approximately US $ 5.3 billion, an increase of + 11%.

The company’s asset disposal income in 2018 was 4.

US $ 9.6 billion. The previous actual increase was mainly due to the company’s relocation to a new office address and disposal of land from the original office address to generate revenue.

Investment suggestion: Against the background of the macroeconomic growth prospects, the performance of aviation demand has improved, the surrounding oil and exchange rates are relatively stable, and aviation ‘s 19-year performance improvement has improved certainty. We are optimistic about the performance of aviation in the peak season, and the company has a significant position in the main base region.The market share of first-line air routes is high, and EPS is expected to be 0 in 2019-2021.

56 yuan, 0.

69 yuan, 0.

87 元,对应PE为13x\10x\8x,维持“买入-A”评级。 Risk warning: Aviation demand is lower than expected, oil prices have increased sharply, and the real RMB has depreciated

Honglu Steel Structure (002541): Lower gross profit margin results in first half performance expectations Expected prefabricated building expansion supports profit growth

Honglu Steel Structure (002541): Lower gross profit margin results in first half performance expectations Expected prefabricated building expansion supports profit growth
First half performance is lower than expected Honglu Steel announced the first half of 2019 results: revenue 47.80,000 yuan, an increase of 52 in ten years.9%, net profit attributable to mother 1.700 million, an annual increase of 4.8%; of which in the second quarter realized revenue of 26.5 per cent, an increase of 31 per year.9%, net profit attributable to mother 1.0 million yuan, a ten-year average of 7.4%.Due to the significant decline in gross profit margin, performance was lower than our expectations. In the first half of the year, the company’s revenue continued to grow strongly, mainly due to the release of new production base capacity. In the first half of the year, steel structure output increased (1H19 increased 30.3%); However, due to the higher production costs in the initial stage of the production base’s operation, the gross profit margin decreased.6ppt, gross profit increased by only 5 in the first half of the year.0%.In the first half of the year, the total reduction rate of the company’s four period expense ratios.4pp, partly reducing the impact of rising gross profit margin; increasing net profit margin by 1.6ppt to 3.5%. Net operating cash inflows in the first half of the year4.2 trillion, a reduction of 50 a year.3%, mainly due to changes in working capital (accelerated budget turnover); investment cash net replacement 7.600 million, expanding 36 each year.2%, mainly due to increased investment in new production bases. Development trend In the first half of the year, new and long-term individual items grew strongly, focusing on cost control.The company signed a new contract in the first half of 201969.USD 600 million, a year-on-year increase of 52%, and the growth rate is further accelerated than in 2018; of which, the engineering order was 9.800 million, a year-on-year decrease of 37%, and material orders of 59.500 million, an increase of 98% in ten years.We believe that the strong growth of the company’s new starting point since 2018 has led to continued strong revenue growth in the second half of the year, but at the same time we need to pay attention to the company’s cost control. The prefabricated building general contracting business has developed rapidly.Driven by the company’s active business expansion in the early stage, the company’s gross income from assembled construction business in the first half of the year increased significantly by 88% and 25%, respectively.In the first half of the year, the company continued the general contracting for the design and 深圳桑拿网 construction of shed reform in Puquan District, Fuyang City (3.10,000 yuan), South Zhejiang Science and Technology City School Construction Project Procurement and General Contracting and other projects (2.The business is progressing smoothly with US $ 400 million. We expect that the revenue from the prefabricated construction business will continue to grow rapidly in the second half of the year, providing support for the company’s revenue and profit growth. Earnings forecasts and estimates have been lowered for 2019/2020 due to lower than expected results in the first half of the year6.4% / 10.5% to 4.8/5.800 million.Currently corresponds to August 2019/2020.1/6.7 times price-earnings ratio. We maintain our Outperform rating, but lower our target price by 22% to 9 due to lowered earnings forecasts and lowered industry assessment hub.2 yuan, corresponding to 10.0 times the 2019 price-earnings ratio, which has 24% upside. Risk gross margin continued to decrease, and the development of general contracting business increased cash flow pressure.

Zoomlion (000157): The repurchase highlights the confidence of the leader and sends a positive signal to the market

Zoomlion (000157): The repurchase highlights the confidence of the leader and sends a positive signal to the market

Event: On May 13, 2019, the company announced that it intends to limit the amount to RMB 29.

U.S. $ 7.9 billion of own funds repurchased the company’s shares in a centralized bidding transaction, all of which are employee shareholding plans, with a repurchase price not exceeding RMB 7.

63 yuan / share, the proportion of repurchased shares in the total share capital2.

5%, the repurchase period does not exceed 12 months from May 13, 2019.

Comment: Under the background of uncertainty in the trade war and increasing market uncertainty, the company intends to repurchase the company’s employee shareholding plan, which will help promote the company’s healthy long-term development and improve the long-term incentive mechanism;Confidence in future development has sent positive signals to investors; beneficial local expansion and improvement and the development of overseas markets, we judge the company will usher in double performance and estimates, and maintain a highly recommended rating.

The sales volume of post-engineering machinery products increased rapidly, and the company’s advantages were fully utilized.

The total revenue of the company’s cranes and concrete machinery accounts for 79% (2018 annual report data). At the same time, the late period of the excavator is divided. At present, the industry is still in a high state of prosperity. The company’s high-speed growth in 2019 is highly certain.

Among them, ① tower cranes are accompanied by the promotion of prefabricated buildings, with strong demand and abundant orders, and the company ranks first in the industry; ② the sales volume of automobile cranes in 2019Q1 is 12,415, an increase of 69.

65%, the company sold 3429 units, an annual increase of 80.

6%, with a market share of 27.

62% increased by one first.

7pct; ③ The company’s concrete pump trucks have more than doubled their growth rate in 2019Q1, and it is expected that Q2 will continue to grow at a high speed.

The company’s agricultural machinery reduces losses, and aerial work platforms and excavators may become the company’s future performance highlights.

①In 2018, the agricultural machinery segment realized revenue14.

77 ppm, gross margin 6.

88% can be reduced.

China’s agricultural machinery is generally dominated by traditional agricultural machinery, and there is huge space for future economic crops and agricultural machinery.

The company will adjust the agricultural machinery product structure in response to this trend, continue to deepen cost control and capacity integration, coupled with the government’s understanding of agriculture, we judge that the agricultural machinery business will increase losses in 2019.

② The high-altitude operation platform industry is in a transition period in China and continues to grow rapidly. Benefiting from manual replacement, the requirements of building safety regulations are becoming more and more perfect.

The company takes it as a development focus, and began product development in April 2017. At present, the full range of scissor forks has been developed and the design capacity is 1.

20,000 units / year, the production line has entered the operational stage; the technical planning of the arm has been completed, and it will be completed and put into production in May 2019.

Combined with the company’s leasing services, the company’s aerial work platform business will enter the market power stage in 2019, and it may contribute to the performance increase in the future.

③ The positioning of excavators in the high-end market may become a new growth point for performance.

The company’s excavator products are researched and developed by domestic and North American R & D centers to locate the high-end market. The company’s market sales network and channel distributors have been laid out in advance. The G series of new generation earthmoving machinery products has been launched.

Cash flow reached new highs and profitability continued to improve.

① Since the company’s listing, most of the first quarter’s operating cash flow has been negative. During the period of 2003-2016, only 2004 and 2010 were positive for two years. Since this round of industry recovery, the company has a strong sense of risk control and strictly controls payments.Conditions, the cash flow improved significantly, the average down payment ratio reached about 40%, and the overdue rate of new machine sales was less than 1%.

Since 2017, the company’s net operating cash flow has been positive for three consecutive quarters, and it has reached 18 in Q1 of 2019.

670,000 yuan, an estimated increase of 311 in the same period last year.

56%, the highest level in the same period in history. The breakthrough proves that the company’s operating quality is getting better and better, and it has entered a healthy and upward sustainable development channel.

In 2019, the company pays more attention to expected growth and continues to advance4.

0 product engineering, product sales repayments have further improved, and cash flow will still be good.

重庆耍耍网② The company’s Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 gross profit margins were 25 in 2018.

33%, 25.

79%, 28.

18%, 29.

07%. In 2018, the company concentrated on the release of the second mobile phone. The gross profit margin increased significantly quarter by quarter. In the first quarter of 2019, even the market price competition was fierce. However, the company’s product structure was adjusted, and the proportion of high gross profit products continued to increase.

01%, +0.
94pct, at least +4.
68pct, net interest rate reached 10.

88%, +2 from the previous quarter.

14pct, +5 per year.

05pct, the profit level continues to increase.

Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother will be 31 in 2019-2021.

74, 42.

17 and 51.

4 billion, up 57 previously.

15%, 32.

86% and 21.

89%; corresponding to EPS 0.

41, 0.

54 and 0.

66 yuan, corresponding to PE12, 9, 7 times.

Maintaining a strong recommendation rating risk reminder: Infrastructure investment is less than expected, and downstream fixed asset investment has increased significantly.

Jinsong Group (601992): 3Q19 performance dragged down by real estate carryover, cement advancement continues to benefit from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei high boom

Jinsong Group (601992): 3Q19 performance dragged down by real estate carryover, cement advancement continues to benefit from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei high boom
The 3Q19 results were lower than our company’s 3Q19 revenue of 227.500 million, an increase of 9 every year.9%, net profit attributable to mother is 6.71 megabits, above average 3.2%, a significant decrease of 74 from the previous month.4%, lower than our expectations, mainly due to the 3Q19 real estate carry-over was less than expected, and the new building materials sector exceeded expectations.  Sales of the main cement industry are affected by environmental protection, and gross profit per ton still improves significantly each year.Affected by environmentally-friendly extreme production and downstream shutdowns, 3Q19’s cement and clinker sales declined, down 6% and 7% month-on-month, respectively.In the third quarter of 19, the company’s average price per ton of cement and clinker, the gross profit per ton was extended and increased by 26 yuan and 11 yuan, respectively, compared with 12 yuan and 13 yuan.  Real-estate sector and other business earnings contributed less than expected: the company’s real estate sector 1?3Q19 contributed carry-over revenue of $ 141 million (then + 10%) and a profit increase of 20.200 million US dollars (previously + 15%, accounting for 28% of the company’s total profit in the first three quarters), slightly lower than our expectations.We believe that it may be difficult for the company to complete 100% of progressively disclosed pre-carried forward revenue ($ 23.5 billion) and gross profit (63.500 million) guidelines.The first three quarters of the property investment sector contributed total profits4.6 ppm (previously + 42%); new building materials and trade profits totaled -3.770,000 yuan (0 for the same period last year.4.4 billion), the expected amount exceeded our expectations.  New land reserves decreased, and cash flow continued to expand beyond the increase.In the first three quarters of 19, the company’s operating cash flow improved significantly in ten years.600 million to 42.3 trillion, an increase of 45 over 1H19.The 900 million US dollars expanded again, mainly due to the decrease in the company’s new land reserve in the third quarter of 19 every year.  Development trend The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cement market is expected to improve in 2020, and the company’s cement sector is expected to benefit.Looking forward to 2020, we believe that the company’s core market demand for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cement sector is expected to benefit from the construction of Xiong’an New District and the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.Conducive to maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand in the region.We expect the company’s average price per ton of cement plate and profitability to remain high in 2020, which will also support the company’s operating cash flow.In addition, we expect the company’s attitude towards land acquisition to help maintain the company’s operating cash flow in 2020.  Earnings Forecasts and Estimates The 2019e / 20e EPS will be lowered by 20 due to lowered profit assumptions for the real estate and new building materials sectors.4% / 21.6% to 0.41/0.40 yuan.The current contradiction corresponds to A shares 2019 / 20e 0.6x / 0.5xP / B, H shares 2019 / 20e 0.4x / 0.3x P / B.Maintain Outperform rating and lower A / H target price by 11% / 10% to 4.2 yuan / 2.8 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to A shares 2019 / 20e 0.7x / 0.7xP / B and H shares 2019 / 20e 0.4x / 0.4杭州桑拿网x P / B, and A / H 26% / 21% upside.  Demand for risk-focused projects fell short of expectations, and real estate carry-over exceeded expectations.

China Torch High-tech (600872): Institutional transformation finally settles and is ready to launch a grand plan

China Torch High-tech (600872): Institutional transformation finally settles and is ready to launch a grand plan

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report.

18 years to achieve revenue 41.

700 million (+15.

4%), net profit attributable to mother 6.

100 million (+34.

0%), 杭州桑拿 deducting non-net profit 5.

700 million (+37.


4Q18 achieved revenue of 100,000 yuan (+13.

8%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

200 million (+23.

4%), deducting non-net profit 1.

2 billion (+19.


  Key points for investment: Seasoning Q4 is accumulating and the real estate business is stable.

By business: 18 years of condiment revenue 38.

1.7 billion (+10.

6%), combined with reports and grassroots research, 18Q4 delicious fresh growth rate of 9% -10%, the growth rate gradually due to the company’s accumulation of power for 19 years; soy sauce income 25.

900 million (+9.

1%), sales of 40.

2 positive (+7.

8%), ASP increased by 1.

2%. At present, the company’s main condiment revenue is still concentrated in high fresh soy sauce. In the future, the company will continue to expand and strengthen the soy sauce category and launch new consumer 都市夜网 upgrade products. At the same time, it will continue to expand oyster sauce, cooking wine, vinegar and other categories.It is expected to increase production capacity by 10%, which will help sales growth and increase production efficiency.

Real estate and services revenue 1.

2.7 billion (+155.

6%), the subsidiary Zhonghui Hechuang recognized sales revenue of 87.73 million yuan during the year, single Q4 confirmed revenue of 41.93 million yuan, converted net profit of 30.39 million yuan, the first half of 2019, the first phase of buildings 3-5, about 1.

8 National residential buildings will be opened to increase company performance.

  The system gradually came to an end.

The company announced on March 21 that the actual controller was changed. The actual controller was changed from the Management Committee of Zhongshan Torch High-tech Industrial Development Zone to Yao Zhenhua.

According to the current shareholding ratio, Zhongshan Runtian Investment Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned grandson of Shenzhen Yongshenghua Co., Ltd. under the Baoneng Group, takes 24.

92% of the shares became the largest shareholder of Zhongju Hi-tech. Zhongshan Torch Group Co., Ltd., a traditional wholly-owned enterprise owned by the Zhongshan Torch Development Zone Management Committee, holds 10 shares.

72% became the second largest shareholder.

From holding the card in 2014, to gaining 4 seats in the Board of Directors’ re-election in November 2018, and then changing to the actual controller in March 2019, after many years of system transformation, the boots finally landed, and the company officially realized the loosening of the state-owned enterprise system, thereby improving overall operating efficiency.
  Ready to launch an ambitious plan.

We believe that 19 years is the year of the integrated start. 1) The channels continue to expand. At the end of 2018, the number of dealers was 864, and it is expected that by the end of 2019, it will reach 1,000 (longer +15).

7%); the sales area has covered nearly 80% of prefecture-level cities; 2) the categories are further enriched, and the capacity of edible oil, oyster sauce, sauces, vinegar and other products continues to expand;The market development strategy of “steadily developing the southeast coast, focusing on upgrading the central and northern regions, accelerating the expansion of the southwest region, and gradually advancing the northwest market”; 4) In 19 years, the minority shareholders’ rights and interests have been repositioned, and the increase in profits is estimated to be 10% of the net profit of the mother.

The company released a five-year plan, that is, from 2019 to 2023, in accordance with the three-step development strategy, focusing on endogenous development, expanding the main condiment business, supplementing outreach development, carrying out mergers and acquisitions, both internally and externally.Achieve the double-hundred-year goal of an annual operating income of over 10 billion for the health food industry and an annual output of over 1 million tons.

We estimate that soy sauce accounts for more than 50% of the 10 billion target, chicken powder, oyster sauce, edible oil, etc. will reach over 1 billion, and some small categories will exceed 500 million.According to the five-year double-hundred target calculation, the company’s production and sales compound growth rate is about 13%, and the compound revenue growth rate is about 19% in 2019-2023.

  Profit forecast and investment grade: It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 19-21 will be 49/58/67 billion, + 17/18/16% for the whole year; the net profit attributable to the mother will be 7.



700 million, previously + 25/27/21%, PE was 38/30 / 25X respectively, maintaining “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: capacity expansion, channel expansion is not up to expectations, raw material price fluctuation risk.

Po Laiya (603605) three quarterly report comments: good performance development revenue growth in line with expectations

Po Laiya (603605) three quarterly report comments: good performance development revenue growth in line with expectations

Incident research company released the third quarter report of 2019, the company 19Q1-Q3 achieved operating income20.

80 ppm, an increase of 33 in ten years.

35%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

400,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

04%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother 2.

380,000 yuan, an increase of 41 in ten years.


The company achieved operating income of Q3 in a single quarter7.

52 ppm, an increase of 45 in ten years.

15%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.

670,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

07% commented that the revenue growth in the first half of 2019 accelerated, and the growth of the main brand accelerated: from January to September 2019, the company achieved 20.

8 billion operating income, an increase of 33 in ten years.

35%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

400,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.


The company achieved operating income of Q3 in a single quarter7.

52 ppm, an increase of 45 in ten years.

15%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.

670,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.


In a single quarter, the company’s Q1 / Q2 / Q3 2019 single quarter revenue reached 6.



5.2 billion, an annual increase of 27.

59% / 27.

39% / 45.

15%, revenue continued to accelerate.

In terms of brands, the Perla brand accounted for 88 in the first half of the year.

50%, the brand of Youzilai accounted for 3.

99%, other brands accounted for 7.


It is expected that the revenue growth of the main brand Polia will exceed 30%, and other new brands will continue to make efforts to continuously meet new consumer demand.

  E-commerce channel sales accelerated, creating explosives to stimulate revenue.

The report summarizes that the company continues to refine the operation of various e-commerce platforms, focusing on “young”, “fun” and “fun”.

Tmall: In-depth cooperation with KOL outside the station and head live broadcasters on the station, carry out content marketing for new customers, in-depth operations for brand members, and launch new online and offline retail. Deploy explosive items such as sun protection and air cushion CC in advance, and carry live broadcasts with big influencers on platforms such as Douyin and Kuaishou.

According to the number of reports, the “bubble mask” was successfully created through the acne mark, which drove the company’s revenue growth.Q3 company continued to build explosive models through social platforms. In the first three quarters, e-commerce platforms grew by 60%, online channel revenues increased significantly, gross profit margins, expense ratios declined, and profitability was affected.

In Q1-Q3 of 2019, the company’s gross profit margin decreased and decreased4.

62 points to 60.

45%, mainly 杭州夜网论坛 due to the decline in gross profit margin of the mask income ratio continues to rise.

Regarding the period expense ratio, the sales expense ratio ratio in Q3 single quarter decreased by 1.

82pct to 39.

48%, mainly due to good performance; management expense ratio was -0 for half a year.

54 points to 7.

04%; financial expense rate rises by 0 every year.

18pct to -0.


Q3 single-quarter operating cash flow achieved 1.

3.2 billion US dollars, estimated to turn negative last year to positive, the company’s operations have improved significantly.

In terms of inventory, Q3 single-quarter inventory was 2.

8.1 billion; inventory turnover days were 92 days, a decrease of 11 from last year.

94 days.

  Risk warning: brand development is less than expected; new channel development is less than expected