China Shenhua (601088): Trade coal supplement output gap performance exceeds expectations
Event: On October 28, 2019, the company released three quarterly reports, which reported a real operating income of 1778.
49 trillion, down 8 every year.
36%; net profit attributable to mother is 370.
88 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.
Opinion 3 quarterly report performance exceeded expectations: the company achieved a net profit of 370 in the first three quarters.
88 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.
In the third quarter, Shenhua’s return to mother’s net profit was 128.
45 ppm, an increase of 4 per year.
42%, an increase of 10 from the previous month.
The gap in trade coal harvests ensures that prices remain firm: Shenhua strives to overcome the impact of land acquisition and regional security rectification to achieve a commercial coal yield of 214.
1 million tons, down 2 previously.
7%, achieving 331 coal sales.
7 million tons, down 2 previously.
4%, the average coal sales price of 426 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease.
In the first three quarters, the production cost of self-produced coal was 109 yuan / ton, which decreased by 1 every year.
The first three quarters of coal business realized gross profit of 415.
800 million, down 3 every year.
1%, gross margin 28.
6%, rising by 0 every year.
In the single quarter, the company achieved raw coal production of 68 in the third quarter.
7 million tons, down 7 previously.
47%, down 7 from the previous month.
04%; realized coal sales of 114.
6 million tons, down from 0 previously.
09%, an increase of 2 from the previous month.
32%, it is estimated that the comprehensive purity of ton of coal is 437 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0 from the previous month.
46%, an annual increase of 2.
Among them, the annual sales agreement was 53 million tons, accounting for 46.
2%, 404 yuan / ton; sales monthly long association 46.
2 million tons, accounting for 40.
4%, 482 yuan / ton, 15 spot.4 million tons, accounting for 13.
4%, priced at 418 yuan / ton, the annual long-term association and monthly long-term association totals 86.
The gross profit of coal business in the third quarter was 145.
700 million, an increase of 1.
95%, an annual increase of 3.
The gross profit margin is 30.
64%, an increase of 1.
Profitability of power business increased: Shenhua achieved 116 in the first three quarters of 2019.
65 billion kilowatt-hours, down 45 each year.
4%; Achieve total sales of 109.
34 billion kWh, a decline of 45 per year.
The comprehensive electricity price is 333 yuan / MWh, an increase of 5 per year.
71%, the cost of electricity sales was 257.
3 yuan / MWh, an increase of 1 per year.
4%; the first three quarters of electricity business achieved a gross profit of 100.
49 trillion, down 29 every year.
6%, gross margin 26.
2%, up 4 each year.
In the third quarter, the company realized power generation / sales.
38 billion kWh, a decline of 54 per year.
1% / 54.
2%,北京spa会所 an increase of 9 from the previous month.
7% / 9.
The average price of electricity sold in the third quarter was 338 yuan / MWh, an increase of 5 per year.
63%, down 1 from the previous month.
02%; average electricity sales cost is 256.
78 yuan / MWh, an annual increase of 2.
89%, an increase of 1.
The gross profit of the power business in the third quarter was 32.
54 ppm, an increase of 1 from the previous quarter.
34%, a decrease of 43 per year.
67%; gross margin is 26.93%, an annual increase of 3.
36 averages, down 1 from the previous month.
The transportation business continues to be stable and progressive: in the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s railway, port, and gradually three operating indicators continued to rise.
The railway branch’s own railway transportation turnover reached 214.
7 billion ton kilometers, an increase of 1 in ten years.
6%, realized income of 302.
11 ppm, a 10-year increase of 3.
5% to achieve a gross margin of 61.
7%, down by 0 every year.
The amount of coal in the port is 199.
4 million tons, up from 0 previously.
2%, realized operating income of 44.
41 ‰, a year-on-year decrease of 3% and a gross profit margin of 59.
7%, an annual increase of 1.
Advanced freight volume reached 83.
5 million tons, after which it increased by 6.
9%; spring turnover 67.
8 billion tons of nautical miles, an increase of 0 in ten years.
3%, achieving operating income of 24.
18 trillion, down 20 a year.
4%, achieving a gross profit margin of 12.
6%, an annual decrease of 11.
Taken together, the transportation segment achieved gross profit of 215 in the first half of the year.
880,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.
In the single quarter, the volume of its own railways in the third quarter was 71.
8 billion ton-kilometres, a decline of 1 each year.
4%, down 4 from the previous month.
39%; the amount of coal in the port is 69.
9 million tons, up from 0 previously.
4%, an increase of 3 from the previous quarter.
71%; expected cargo volume 28.
7 million tons, an increase of 8 in the future.
3%, an increase of 1.
06%, turnover in ten years23.
1 billion tons of nautical miles, an increase of 2 in ten years.7%, down 2 from the previous month.
The gross profit of transportation business in the third quarter was 72.
0.8 billion, down 1 year.
08%, down 2 from the previous month.
Gross margin of coal chemical business dropped slightly: Shenhua sold polyethylene 26 in the first three quarters.
12 for the first time, growing by 9 per year.
1%, sales of 24 polypropylene.
13 for the first time, growing by 9 per year.
The first three quarters of coal chemical industry achieved gross profit9.
55 ppm, a decrease of 1 per year.
1%; gross profit margin is 22%, down by 10 in ten years.
Sales of polyethylene 7 in the third quarter.
The growth rate was 47%, a decrease of 18% from the previous month and an increase of 10 in ten years.
2% sold polypropylene 7.
07 for the first time, down 10 from the previous month.
51%, an annual increase of 16.
Coal chemical business achieved gross profit in the third quarter 2.
26 trillion, down 30 a year.
67%, down 20 from the previous month.
98%, gross profit margin 17.
89%, down 4 each year.
68 units, down 4 from the previous month.
Financial expenses have fallen sharply before: the company’s total expenses during the third quarter were 54.
3.6 billion, an increase of 8 from the previous month.
01%, a decline of 9 per year.
Including financial expenses 5.
11 trillion, down 45 a year.
17%, down 2 from the previous month.
The annual increase in investment income: the company recognized net investment income 24 in the first three quarters.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 437 in ten years.
36%, mainly due to the company’s recognition of asset investment income, and due to redemption of wealth management products to confirm income.
Confirmation of investment income in the third quarter5.19 ppm, an increase of 311 in ten years.
9%, mainly due to the recognition of investment income from delivered power assets.
The average income tax rate has fallen: the first three quarters of 2019 have seen a 12-year decline in earnings expenses.
38%, with an average income rate of 20.
3%, a decline of 2 per year.
The five single ones, first of all, enjoyed a higher proportion of profits in the railway segment that enjoyed preferential tax rates during the reporting period.
Third quarter blood sugar costs 31.
7.1 billion, down 22 each year.
45%, down 31.
01%; average tax rate 17.
4%, down 7 from the previous month.
23 averages, falling by 3 each year.
Minority shareholders ‘profit and loss decreased: The company’s minority shareholders’ profit and loss in the first three quarters of 2019 was 68.
0.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.
The profit and loss of minority shareholders in the third quarter was 21.
7.8 billion, a decline of 24 every year.
84%, down 8 from the previous month.
Chargebacks for maintenance costs, production safety, and other similar expenses were made during the quarter8.
US $ 3.5 billion: According to Chinese enterprise accounting standards, expenses such as maintenance fees and work safety expenses are included in current expenses and are separately reflected in the special reserve in shareholders’ equity. According to international financial reporting standards, these expenses should be recognized when they occur, soAccording to IAS, the actual net profit for the first three quarters was 362.
500 million yuan.
The Air Force rushed back about 8 this quarter because the company accrued such expenses was much larger than the actual use.
Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 452 respectively.
1.9 billion, 471.
3 billion, 475.
180,000 yuan, corresponding EPS is 2 respectively.
27 yuan, 2.
37 yuan, 2.
In recent years, the supply and demand of the coal industry has been basically balanced, the company’s profits are stable, and its cash flow advantage is obvious. At the same time, the company has maintained a stable and high dividend since its listing, which is expected to cause a rebound.
Maintain BUY-A investment rating with 6-month target price of 24.
97 yuan, equivalent to 11 times the price-earnings ratio risk warning: coal prices have fallen sharply, thermal power demand is less than expected